The End of TV as We Know It

February 20th, 2008 Brian Dusho

The end of analog broadcasting is exactly a year away in the US and everyone
from The Commerce Department’s, National Telecommunications and Information
Administration (NTIA) to Best Buy are looking at ways to help the 14 million
US households that still depend on an analog signal. Vouchers will be mailed
out to households so they can purchase discounted government-approved
converters. According to USA Today this will be “the boldest technology
conversion ever attempted” but something is troubling in this picture. When
the transition to digital was planned no one in their wildest dreams could
have predicted that by the time of the switch TV would be in such a poor
shape, with its audience fragmented, shows undermined by the recent writers’ strike and the annual upfront ad sales event in question.

Ironically, it appears at this point that the conversion to digital, instead
of launching the TV industry into a new level of efficiency and prosperity,
might become another factor contributing to its current crisis. The TV is on
target to lose a large chunk of existing viewership. “About 42% of those
who’ll have no TV signal after the transition have no plans to do anything
about it,” says Consumer Union Senior Counsel Chris Murray, citing a
December survey by Consumer Reports (a quote from USA Today). That survey
also found that 36% of all consumers don’t know about digital TV conversion.
Most of the people who are aware misunderstand what it’s about or how it
will affect them, reports USA Today.

Even if the government campaign manages to raise awareness and improve the
numbers mentioned above, it is fair to assume that both the audience numbers
and the ad revenues will still be affected 12 months from now. We know TV
will not die; it will transform itself in order to survive. But while it
does, the advertisers’ trust in it will be further undermined.

When the magnitude of potential negative consequences of the conversion
sinks in, advertisers will have another good reason to have a closer look at
the alternatives, including Digital Out-of-Home (aka digital signage). By
the fall of 2009, I dare to predict from my backstage vantage point, this
medium will be considerably more mature, wide-spread, accepted and comparable in value
to any other media.

Entry Filed under: The Big Picture, Toys and Technologies, Uncategorized